MCB analyses the impact of the Middle East conflict on Sub-Saharan Africa
MCB Group announces the launch of the first edition of the Africa Economic Compass. This new flagship publication has been developed as part of a revamp of its economic publications programme. The initiative aims to provide more structured, coherent and accessible insights into regional and international economic dynamics.
Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the Africa Economic Compass offers key insights into their implications for Sub-Saharan Africa.
According to MCB Group, the conflict could have three major consequences:
slowing growth, at a time when the region was initially expected to expand by around 4.5% in 2026, in line with IMF projections
reviving inflationary pressures, particularly in economies where food and energy account for a large share of the consumption basket, amplifying the impact of the energy shock
increasing currency volatility, in an environment where global financial conditions remain tight
This shock comes at a time when oil prices have reacted sharply, with Brent crude reaching nearly USD 120 per barrel, before falling back below the USD 100 mark following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire.
Analytical tool
To further analyse these vulnerabilities, MCB’s economic research team has developed an analytical tool: the Macroeconomic Pressure Index (MePI). This index enables the identification and monitoring of underlying macroeconomic pressures affecting African economies.
The MePI incorporates indicators related, among others, to growth, public finances, external balances and debt. By assessing each country relative to its own macroeconomic fundamentals, it provides a nuanced and forward-looking view of risks, and serves as a decision-support tool in an increasingly volatile economic environment.
In-depth analysis of the continent
The first edition of the Africa Economic Compass features dedicated analytical deep dives into three key economies: Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya, illustrating the diversity of trajectories and vulnerabilities across the continent.
It also includes a thematic chapter on the transformation of cross-border payments in Africa. This rapidly evolving ecosystem is being driven by digitalisation and new payment systems, with flows expected to grow by around 10% per year over the next five years.
A coordinated team effort
With the Africa Economic Compass, MCB Group reaffirms its commitment to delivering rigorous, forward-looking analyses tailored to today’s challenges, in order to support decision-making by economic stakeholders across the continent.
Vicky Hurynag, Head of Strategy, Research & Development at MCB, commented: “In an increasingly fragmented and uncertain global environment, it is essential to rely on rigorous, data-driven analysis to understand African dynamics and identify opportunities despite volatility.”
The Africa Economic Compass is the result of a coordinated effort by MCB Group’s economic research team. The team has recognised expertise in analysing local, regional and international macroeconomic dynamics. It maintains continuous monitoring of sector developments, financial market trends and structural shifts shaping African and global economies.
Through a rigorous, data-driven approach supported by economic modelling, the team contributes to strengthening the understanding of economic challenges in a constantly evolving environment.
Access the full report here: on.mcb.mu/aec
About MCB
Anchored on more than 187 years of accomplishments, The Mauritius Commercial Bank Limited (“MCB”) is the leading bank in Mauritius and the main entity of MCB Group. Over the years, MCB’s diversification strategy has ensured it becomes an increasingly prominent financial services player in the region. Backed by a large shareholder base of local and foreign investors and the highest market capitalisation on the local Stock Exchange, the Group wields a sound business model, which has enabled it to successfully tap into the potential of non-banking financial services, whilst consolidating its domestic banking operations and expanding beyond local shores. Today, MCB offers a wide array of financial solutions, including retail, business and corporate banking, factoring, leasing, global business, wealth management and investment products. MCB is also a regional bank with a widening international foothold and presence spanning to Madagascar, Maldives and Seychelles through dedicated subsidiaries, as well as Réunion, Mayotte, France, South Africa, Kenya, Dubai and Nigeria via its associates and representative offices. The Group also has a strong commitment towards having a positive economic, social, environmental and cultural impact in the long run.
Further information on www.mcbgroup.com